The Best Site on the Web

Why yes this is the best site on this thing we call the internet.  Learn anything you want when you want.  This site isn't too bad either.

Perceptions are the only thing of value

Well that's not a politically correct way of thinking (referring to the title of course).  We were all told to not judge a book by its cover, not to decide on someone by the impact of first impressions, etc.  Well in the financial markets, perception is valuable and the reality is discounted and swept under the proverbial rug.  I have wanted to write a post on a certain shiny metal that really has no viable uses other than to outfit the showy with bling and now have a moment so I will.  Now I know what you'll say, "but Ramblings, my cuff links / earrings / wedding ring / bracelet / whatever is my most prized and valuable possession".  Really?  Other than ornamental jewelry, what is a "useful" function of gold.  "Well what about the gold plated connections on my $250 Monster HDMI cables?  Isn't crystal clear TV reception worthy of gold (because of course I need to see every ripple of fabric on the latest American Idol contestants)" you might say.  No gold plated connections are just a marketing gimmick that unfortunately, too many fall for.  Gold, what's it good for.  Well for one thing it has the perception of being valuable.

The perception of gold as value goes back thousands of years.  Perception of value is all gold has going for it.  Does it do anything like say, a barrel of oil, a bushel of wheat, a cow/pig/buffalo/horse/rabbit/etc., or an acre of land.  No it doesn't.  But what it does do, is captivate mens minds with the shiny glint of sunlight off the speck in the river.  In an emergency would you rather have a bucket of wheat or a gold ring?  Gold can buy the bucket o' wheat, but only as long as golds perception of value holds.  This perception of value extends to all kinds of things including small rectangular pieces of paper with a picture of our first President located on the front.

Full Disclosure - I do have a small position in gold limited to what fits around me and my lovely wife's finger.

Sugar. The sweetest things in life are not free.

Sugar.  The white crystalline goodness that I no longer put on my cereal in the morning and no longer drink in my Coke.  Infectious Greed posted this graph over the weekend.


As you can see, sugar has taken a beating.  Since I consider myself leaning toward a contrarion (sp?)/ value "investor" stance, I had to look up the reason(s) for sugars decline.  What are they?  Well google "investing in sugar" to find a ocean liner full of info.  Some say sugar is crashing others say its only a trough between peaks.  I think it all depends on China (doesn't everything depend on China now-a-days) and the burgeoning middle class' taste for the sweet stuff.  For me, I will keep up with the idea of investing in sugar or a derivative investment vehicle for sugar, since I'm looking for a job and this gives me something to model (excel spreadsheets, not what I look like in sugar). FWIW I would GLADLY pay $0.05 - $0.10 more for my Coke if it had real sugar instead of high fructose corn syrup.

PS - Notice that the USD is beating Gold YTD.  Hum very interesting.

Disclosure: At the time and date of this posting I have no positions in sugar.

China Wages Skyrocket

So I blogged about China in a previous post, specifically about their property bubble.  According to this article (you can get free access to FT.com), China's wages are increasing.  This should help fuel the bubble.  One question I will pose; if Chinese wages reach some kind of parity to Mexico/Brazil/??? then what incentive is there to ship goods from China and wait weeks for the container to float across the blue Pacific when the supposed labor rate advantage has disappeared?

Europe oh Europe Where Dist Thou Go Wrong + Linky Goodness

CAUTION (Many parentheses ahead).

So for everyone who thought that the ~$750 Billion bailout of the Euro dominated countries would solve the crisis, well, no it didn't.  It kind of reminds me of the beginning of WWI, but without all the killing, when Hungary says its debt is greater than stated and so France's debt goes all illiquid (no one wants to buy the bonds) on us.  Here is a great synopsis of what is happening and what could happen.

So Europe goes down in theoretical flames (or maybe real ones.  Who knows, just look back at their history.), and Europe is the biggest buyer of China's goods (nope, the good 'ole USA is numero dos) so what happens to China when the ein'st and zwie'st (1st and 2nd in kind of German speak) markets are extremely soft?  China already has the biggest property bubble ever seen, not counting the one before or after.  It's all the rage to short China and Europe now so cheap opportunities are most likely far gone, but with a little work and luck there are things that can be done.

General links (may not include anything to do with finance)

-   MetalJockey is back baby!  Now with Zambian goodness.

-   We just need to keep counting everyone for full employment.  Here and here.

-   How to live in a house for free for 1 to 2 years.  Here and here.  Since I actually have equity in my abode, I would most likely be foreclosed upon quite quickly.

The last set of links is interesting for a number of reasons I won't get into because most likely you didn't click on the links.  One interesting reason I will discuss is the fact of what happens to the property taxes or lack there of.  Past due taxes are first in line for repayment when a house is sold out of foreclosure, short sell, etc.  Local Governments finance the past due taxes by selling the INDIVIDUAL tax lien to a private entity.  Usually the bidding starts at an 18% return and goes down (the return, not the price, the price goes up) from there.  So lets say that I'm Joe Sixpack who stopped paying my $2,000 month mortgage one year ago.  If I didn't spend the money on six packs then I would have $24,000 (ZIRP world, no interest blah, blah, blah).  Let's say the bank didn't pay the property taxes due to the lack of me making payments (why lose more money by paying $ out to another entity when you can transfer the risk to them for free).  I show up on the courthouse steps with five grand in my pocket and buy my tax lien for a 15% return.  WooHoo!!!!  I just made 15% (~$750) on five grand using what is technically the banks money (leverage baby) while living rent free in my (ok actually the lenders) house.  Now time value of money comes into play here because of the lack of a known time frame from buying the tax lien to the actual foreclosure sell, but really within a ZIRP world does time value of money really matter to a small individual.

Fascinating Finance Facts Daily 5-27-10

I'm looking for a job link.

GS Settlement?  I actually thought the government might go for the big B as in $1 Billion.

Inflation, what inflation? (source) I wrote about the governments slight of hand concerning inflation way back when.

New and Improved / Change is the Only Constant

So I changed this blogs title because I'm far from a student and few Moto Adventures were being had.  That said this blog will now be updated more regularly with what I think are fascinating finance facts.  The reason that this blog will be updated more frequently is because I am now semi-employed.  So if you know someone who needs a finance person familiar with most aspects of the financial world please, please tell me about it.  My wife will go crazy with me around more (not to mention the honey-do list she is generating).  My skills include MS Excel (all types of general and financial spreadsheets including budgets, pro-forma's, forecasting, financial modeling, etc.), MS Word, MS Powerpoint, Google Sketch-up, Quickbooks, with a working knowledge of Matlab, MS Access, C++, HTML and exposure to several accounting programs and Mathmatica .  I learn quickly and can adapt to whatever formats and systems companies use.  FYI, I will work for very little money for the right opportunity (opportunity does not just include the monetary possibilities but also knowledge acquisition opportunities).  I have been involved in three start up companies as a founder and manager, two of which were sold.  Please help my wife get me out of the house and help me avoid the "list".  Leave a comment or email me with any and all leads.

Watch Out for More Fascinating Stuff

I read this in the comment section of Paul K.'s Infectious Greed blog;

... speculator who trusts smoothly operating financial markets to pay him large amounts of electronically transmitted digital representations of federal reserve liabilities in faithful fulfillment of a bunch of derivatives transactions.

In other words US Dollars.

The Lamest Duck of All

Well since the health care bill (it should be called the health insurance bill) passed we now have a whole lot of lame duck congresspeople (you have to be PC or you will be called racist, genderist, ageist, etc.) who now can pass anything they want with no worries about what will come in November. Here comes cap and trade. :(

I need to move to New York to avoid future colds

In my previous post I postulated that I was infected with a common cold by sharing saltines with AJ. Well a New York legislator has come up with a plan that would forever keep me from making the same mistake. BAN SALT. Yep thats right ban salt, and anything including sodium, from being incorporated into foods that are made. This bill only covers restaurants now, but could conceivably be expanded to other foods. Is this the first in a tidal wave of new regulations designed to limit the use of future government health care???? Probably not, but it makes a good conspiracy basis for future blog posts.

As per my thoughts on the health care bill now being fought over in the bowels of congress, while we need health care reform, all this bill does is provide insurance and does not guarantee reasonable nor affordable HEALTH CARE. It does not attack the cost structure of health care or ease of that same care. The USA is in the enviable position of being able to learn from all the mistakes that other countries have made in implementing solid health care reform. Do we use that info to implement smart reform or do we bicker and power grab until the bill is 5,000 pages long and filled with bribes and deals. You be the judge. Happy salt eating while you still can.... Ummmmmm popcorn with real butter and salt Ummmmmmmm.

It's been a really, really, really, really, really, really, long time

So its been awhile since I last posted anything of interest (has anything been of interest ;) ). Right now I'm interested in convertible bonds and the mechanisms and pricing of said bonds. Settle down, I know you are excited for an upcoming treatise on the nuances of the convert bonds, but you'll have to wait (I'm mean that way). This interest was flamed by my "reading" of a book on the collapse of Lehman Bros. I put reading in quotations because my local library has seen fit to offer the book only in listening form, and yes that bugs me. The great thing about an actual book is the fact that you can re-read passages that maybe you don't quite understand the first time through and then glean new info from the re-read. This is totally lost on listening to a book. My MP3 player unfortunately does not allow me to rewind passages without rewinding to the start of the chapter. With the chapters being approx 90 minutes long, this leads to much soul searching when it comes to not "getting" the "text" the first time through. Do I waste 30 minutes of listening time to gather that 15 seconds of info, or do I just keep going. Oh, the dilemmas I face.

Just got back from a warm weekend away with the family. Had a great time and found a new favorite hiking area. I did come home with a cold that A. apparently gave me (I will no longer share saltines while watching Mythbusters on Netflix). Have I told you how much the family loves Netflix and Hulu streaming. All the shows we like that are on cable (which we WON'T have) at 1/8th the cost. Now if only they could stream it to my phone. Till next year.

It's been a really, really, really, really, really, really, long time

Troubling Times We Live In

Now there are two sides to every story so right now I can only present this side. If this group of non-TARP lenders are correct, the fate of Chrysler will be tied up in courts for possibly years.

A new preamble to the Constitution

The following has been attributed to State Representative Mitchell Kaye from GA. 

'We the sensible people of the United States, in an attempt to help everyone get along, restore some semblance of justice, avoid more riots, keep our nation safe, promote positive behavior, and secure the blessings of debt-free liberty to ourselves and our great-great-great-grandchildren, hereby try one more time to ordain and establish some common sense guidelines for the terminally whiny, guilt ridden, and delusional. We hold these truths to be self evident: that a whole lot of people are confused by the Bill of Rights and are so dim they require a Bill of NON-Rights.'

ARTICLE I: You do not have the right to a new car, big screen TV, or any other form of wealth. More power to you if you can legally acquire them, but no one is guaranteeing anything.

ARTICLE II: You do not have the right to never be offended. This country is based on freedom, and that means freedom for everyone --not just you! You may leave the room, turn the channel, express a different opinion, etc.; but the world is full of idiots, and probably always will be.

ARTICLE III: You do not have the right to be free from harm. If you stick a screwdriver in your eye, learn to be more careful; do not expect the tool manufacturer to make you and all your relatives independently wealthy.

ARTICLE IV: You do not have the right to free food and housing. Americans are the most charitable people to be found, and will gladly help anyone in need, but we are quickly growing weary of subsidizing generation after generation of professional couch potatoes who achieve nothing more than the creation of another generation of professional couch potatoes. This one is my pet peeve...get an education and go to work..don't! expect everyone else to take care of you!

ARTICLE V: You do not have the right to free health care. That would be nice, but if it would turn out the same way as current public housing, we're not interested in public health care.

ARTICLE VI: You do not have the right to physically harm other people..If you kidnap, rape, intentionally maim, or kill someone, don't be surprised if the rest of us want to see you put away for the rest of your sorry life.

ARTICLE VII: You do not have the right to the possessions of others. If you rob, cheat, or coerce away the goods or services of other citizens, don't be
surprised if the rest of us get together and lock you away in a place where you still won't have the right to a big screen color TV or a life of leisure.

ARTICLE VIII: You do not have the right to a job. All of us sure want you to have a job, and will gladly help you along in hard times,but we expect you to take advantage of the opportunities of education and vocational training laid before you to make yourself useful. (AMEN!)

ARTICLE IX: You do not have the right to happiness. Being an American means that you have the right to PURSUE happiness, which by the way, is a lot easier if you are unencumbered by an over abundance of idiotic laws created by those of you who were confused by the Bill of Rights.

ARTICLE X: This is an English speaking country. We don't care where you are from, English is our language. Learn it or go back to wherever you came from!

(and last but not least....)

ARTICLE XI: You do not have the right to change our country's history or heritage. This country was founded on the belief in one God You are given the freedom to believe in any religion, any faith, or no faith at all, with no fear of persecution. The phrase IN GOD WE TRUST is part of our heritage and history, and if you are uncomfortable with it, TOUGH!

How I Spent My Saturday

This is how I spent my February 28th, 2009. I spent it riding my KTM 250 xcfw through rocks, sand, tamarack, and just plain dirt, racing in the 2009 Rhino Rally. Now in the picture to the left you will notice that there is dust in the background and that I failed to mention that I rode through dust. Well the reason is that to avoid the dust you must be near the front. The other way of avoiding the suffocating dust is to be waaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyy in the back. Guess where I was.

This race was always supposed to be my first motorcycle race, but this just happened to be one year late. I originally wanted to run the 2008 race, but my woeful lack of motorcycle experience delayed the adventure till this year. The first weekend in Feb was spent pre-running what we thought was the race course. It turned out that we pre-ran only the last 5 or so miles of the course. So how did I do? Well within the first 10 minutes of the race I had dropped my bike into a shallow ditch like ravine off the side of the trail and then spent the next 10 minutes trying to extract and restart the 2 fiddy. At this point I discovered I was probably in last place. I chased down some riders, passed them, and then came to a hill that was full of rocks the size of cantaloupes and watermelons.

Up until this point I hadn't dropped or crashed since that first episode (falling over in feather soft sand does NOT count as a crash) and was feeling energized and confident. This mountain took all that away and then gave it all back. About a quarter the way up, I lost all momentum and came to a stop with my front and rear wheels against ledges. Hop off the bike, try and walk the bike over this obstacle, stall the bike, begin the kicking. At this point in the story lets go back to preparing the KTM for the race. I went through the bike tightening, checking, re-checking, etc. everything I could think of. The only thing I wasn't able to do is top off the battery with a charge. I wasn't to worried because after 5-10 minutes of riding the battery will charge enough to start the bike pretty easily. I used up the battery during the aftermath of my first dismount (really the battery only turned the motor over a few times before totally dying) and my nap in the feather soft sand confirmed that the battery was still kaput. So here I am, a quarter the way up this gnarly hill with only the kick starter available to start the bike. To make matters worse the kick starter is on the wrong side of the bike in relation to the slope of the hill and the angle of the bike. Whats a short legged racer to do? Back the bike down 10 feet or so and kick it. During this contemplation of my navel, two riders passed me. A third stalled out just passed my point of stallation (my thesaurus is not working) and slowly backed his bike down past mine. We started talking in between kicks and he asked why I didn't just push the button (up until now I hadn't tried)? I told him that my battery was dead and to prove it I pushed the button. That's when I heard the noise, a noise I hadn't heard in a while (it seems like an eternity when you are kicking a bike on a hill and its not starting), the engine running. I quickly jump on the bike, yell goodbye and good luck and off I go.

My first challenge was getting past the point of the previous stallation. That cleared, I now focused on smoothness, clutch work, and momentum. I made it look easy heheheheh. The hill of death and life was left in my dust. The rest of the race was great. We came down off the mountain and into some of the washes we pre-ran. I focused on being smooth and slow :). I came to a turn that led out of a wash where course workers were directing me up a small sand hill. Now my nemesis is small sand hills. I stopped to look at the hill when a course worker came up to ask me if I was all right. I nodded but must have had a look in my eyes that said otherwise. She asked me again and I nodded again, but I wasn't as alright as my nod suggested. All I was thinking was that I didn't know if I had the energy or desire to pick up the 250 if I tipped it over on the sand hill. I was spent. The hill presented no problem. I then picked up speed and chased down one of the riders who passed me on the hill of death and life, and then rode through the finish banner exhausted and ecstatic at the same time. My race was over.

During the post race bench racing, I learned that the rest of our race "team" spent the whole day riding in dust, dodging the invisible rocks and generally wishing for the end to come. I, on the other hand, rode the race in the clear desert air, avoiding the rocks and generally having a wonderful time (don't tell anybody, but I actually stopped on the race course at the top of a hill to take in the view and wonder at the fortunate circumstances that allowed me this view, this day). Thanks for reading.

PS If anyone finds a finishers pin in the desert from the 2009 Rhino Rally, its mine. Take it and hang it on your wall.

Liar, liar pants on fire

I just don't know what to say about this.  I'm actually dumbfounded and speechless.  Remember these are the same people who decide what happens to YOUR money.  PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE, ITS SHORT, SO THAT YOU CAN SEE WHAT IS HAPPENING!

Being Held Ransom

OK, lets step back and really look at this whole AIG bonus issue. We are being held ransom and the alternative to paying the ransom is the scariest thing known to man; the unknown (maybe not the SCARIEST but certainly the most expensive). This money is being given to the very people who blew up AIG. Why? To keep them from doing worse damage by letting the rot fester into a bigger infection (can it actually get bigger? Why yes it can. A whole lot bigger. That, is the scary unknown.)

To understand you have to get inside the mind of the traders who did this in the first place. They are not nice guys who got caught up in a game they couldn't win. The very definition of a wall street (notice the lack of capitalization of "wall street" and the respect capitalization provides to an organization/noun) type trader is someone who has no conscience and no fear. They are out for themselves first, themselves second, themselves third, ....., their firm 20th, and everyone else comes in somewhere around 42nd. Traders will bet against their fellow in-firm traders to get their "book" to be the biggest and thus be the most highly compensated. Now ask yourselves what would happen if you ask an intelligent, extremely highly paid, amoral trader who has already brought the nation to its fiscal knees, that "nope no bonus for you. Please keep unwinding trades with little in the way of compensation out of the goodness of your heart" (this of course assumes they still have a heart. No really). What I come up when I ask that question is that the amoral trader will say *$#% ^%* and then institute a trade that will really blow things up. We are talking serious money. Why do they care, they have made more money in the past 5 good years then they know what to do with and ride off into the Bahamian sunset.

We are paying a ransom and no matter what the Pres or congress (see my last post about what a congress is made of) say these bonuses will be paid by you and me and we'll smile as we hand over the money. If we don't, then we now have the unknown to look forward too and right now that is the scariest thing of all.

PS I DO NOT condone the behavior of these traders and AIG in general. To my knowledge no laws of the land were broken but moral laws definitely were breached.

Quote 'O' the day

In my many years I have come to a conclusion that one useless man is a shame, two is a law firm and three or more is a congress.

–John Adams

The Sad "State" of Affairs

Pastor Adrian Rogers explained how many Americans feel today.

"You cannot legislate the poor into freedom by legislating the wealthy out of freedom. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that my dear friend, is about the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it."

This quote came for this post on our present situation. Maybe I'll post something later today.

Just what you need....................A little international finance

The beginning and end of this short (I promise you that it is short) article are the good parts. For those who don't want to read it here's a synopsis.

USA - "China stop manipulating your currency to acquire an advantage in world trade."

China - "We hold $682 Billion of your debt that we now want guarantees for."

USA - "Sorry, we won't speak out of turn again. After all the new guy said it. What does he know? He couldn't even figure out his own taxes. Turbo Tax, duh! Can we be friends again? Anything we can get for you? Anything at all? How about the Statue of Liberty? After all, New York is almost bankrupt and could really use the cash."